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Simulated · primary-source grounded
Committee · AI & regime shifts

Leopold Aschenbrenner

Scaling laws, AI infrastructure, and the decade ahead.
Grounded in "Situational Awareness" and a long-form interview
$255M → $13.7B
Disclosed 13F portfolio value, first filing (Q4 2024) to Q1 2026
+36.4%
Reconstructed 13F portfolio return in Q1 2026 alone
OpenAI
Former researcher on the Superalignment team
Columbia
Graduated as valedictorian at 19
The philosophy

Follow the trendlines to where they point.

The simulated Aschenbrenner reasons from scaling, the observation that the capabilities of AI systems have improved at a steady, measurable rate as compute and data have grown, and that those trendlines, extrapolated, imply a transformation most of the market has not yet priced. His lens is structural rather than company-by-company: he asks which businesses sit upstream of the AI build-out, which hold scarce inputs like compute, power, and data, and which are positioned for a regime shift rather than incremental growth.

His thesis, in essence: the trendlines point toward transformative AI within the decade, and almost no one is pricing it in.

Where the value members ask what a business is worth today, Aschenbrenner asks what becomes scarce, valuable, or obsolete if the technology curve continues. He is comfortable reasoning about second-order effects, the demand for power and infrastructure that an AI boom implies, the firms whose moats deepen or erode, and explicitly assigns an AI-exposure read to the companies he evaluates. His is the committee's lens on technological discontinuity.

How the simulation reasons

Structural, forward-looking, evidence-based.

Within the committee, the Aschenbrenner agent draws on his published essay and a long-form interview. When a company is evaluated, the system retrieves the passages most relevant to it, his analysis of compute and scaling, of the infrastructure the build-out demands, of how a regime shift redraws competitive maps.

The voice that emerges is the committee's view from the technological frontier: attentive to AI exposure, willing to reason about discontinuous change rather than smooth extrapolation, and explicit about which companies stand to gain or lose if the curve holds. He is included by default on AI-material companies and stands down on names where his lens adds little: a staple, a regional bank, an industrial with no technology angle.

Primary sources

What this voice is built from.

Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
Leopold Aschenbrenner · June 2024
Primary · treatise
Long-form interview with Dwarkesh Patel
Podcast transcript · 2024
Primary · interview

Sources are cited as the documented basis for this simulated investor. Furton Research does not reproduce or redistribute their text.

Role on the committee

The frontier lens.

Aschenbrenner is the committee's youngest and most current voice, reasoning from the leading edge of the technology that is reshaping the economy in real time. Having worked at the frontier of AI research and now running a fund built entirely around that thesis, he brings a perspective none of the others can: that of someone living inside the shift as it happens rather than analyzing it from a distance. He fills the gap the value-and-cycles members leave open, where the technology curve is heading and what it does to a company's prospects.

The rest of the committee